No dangerous encounter with an asteroid in 2030

Despite the new procedure for checking the data, the first announcement was hasty and wrong

No sooner had nasa’s near-earth object program announced the supposedly verified possibility of an asteroid coming dangerously close to earth in 2030 and possibly crashing into it, than there was another setback: as usual, the calculations were not accurate, and the information was released to the public too quickly.

Carl hergenrother of the catalina sky survey (css) near tucson, arizona, is "guilt" in the misery. On 3. On november 11, earlier observations of the object 2000 sg344 from the image archives of the css enabled him to calculate more precisely the orbit of the possible asteroid. In the year 2030 there is no danger of a possible collision, because the object will pass the earth in a distance of 5 million kilometers.

On friday, the international astronomical union (iau) announced that there is a risk of 1 in 500 for a collision. The calculations were checked and then published only after 72 hours, in order to counteract the already usual false reports (once again got away with it …), but at least this time this checking procedure did not prove to be correct (2030 an asteroid comes dangerously close to the earth).

At least the new calculations show a higher probability for a crossing of the trajectories of the asteroid and the earth in the years after 2030. For example, there is a 1 in 1000 chance that on 16. September 2071 the asteroid, if the object should be one, could hit the earth. Still the possibility is not excluded that the alleged asteroid could be also an old rocket stage on the apollo time. Should the object be this, it was simply burned up on entering the earth’s atmosphere.

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